What Changed?
The Fed has already shifted from “hold” to “ease,” cutting the target range to 3.50%–3.75% in December 2025. But markets are still wrestling with a contradiction: policy is moving down while longer-term borrowing costs remain stubbornly higher.
A clean scenario frame is three additional 25 bp cuts. That would take the target range to 2.75%–3.00%—a meaningful drop for short-term and floating-rate borrowers, but not a promise that mortgage rates or corporate credit spreads fall in tandem.
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The Numbers
Fed target range: 3.50%–3.75% (effective Dec 11, 2025).
Treasury yields: 2-year 3.45% (Dec 30, 2025); 10-year 4.14% (Dec 30, 2025).
Curve spread: 10-year minus 2-year at 0.71 on Dec 31, 2025.
30-year fixed mortgage rate: 6.15% (Dec 31, 2025).
Consumer credit: +2.2% SAAR in October 2025; revolving credit +4.9% SAAR.
Corporate profits: up $166.1B in Q3 2025 (profits from current production).
Why It Matters
Consumer: Three cuts mostly show up in variable-rate products and the “cash rate” environment—credit cards reprice faster than mortgages. With mortgage rates still above 6%, housing affordability improves only if long yields and spreads cooperate.
Credit: Easing helps at the margin, but availability matters as much as price. Year-end funding stress—visible in heavy use of the Fed’s Standing Repo Facility—underscores that credit conditions can tighten even in a cutting cycle, depending on balance sheet constraints and market plumbing.
Corporate earnings: The clean beneficiaries are companies with floating-rate exposure or near-term refinancing needs, where interest expense responds quickly. For large, cash-rich firms, the bigger driver remains demand and pricing power—rate cuts help sentiment, but they don’t replace revenue growth.
Bond yields: If the front end falls faster than the long end, the curve steepens—good for duration holders who already own longer bonds, but a reminder that “cuts” can coexist with tight real-world borrowing costs. Watching the 2-year versus 10-year gap is a practical way to track whether easing is transmitting beyond policy.
Sector winners: Rate-sensitive equity groups tend to respond first—REITs and utilities via discount rates, and smaller balance sheets via financing costs. Banks are mixed: lower short rates can pressure net interest margins even as credit stress risk eases.
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Takeaway
Three additional cuts would be real relief for short-rate parts of the economy, but the market impact depends on whether longer yields and credit spreads follow. The key signal isn’t “how many cuts,” but whether borrowing costs faced by households and firms actually compress.
— Lauren Brown
Editor, American Ledger
Sources
Federal Reserve, December 2025 https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20251210a.htm
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), December 2025 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10
Freddie Mac PMMS, December 2025 https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
Federal Reserve (G.19 Consumer Credit), December 2025 https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/
Bureau of Economic Analysis, December 2025 https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-3rd-quarter-2025-initial-estimate-and-corporate-profits
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