This Week’s Theme: “The Vibe Recession” Isn’t Over Yet
While the hard data looks solid—low unemployment, slowing inflation, resilient consumer spending—sentiment remains shaky. Confidence among U.S. consumers and small businesses is still below pre-pandemic levels.
Why does that matter?
Because perception often precedes behavior.
“We’re not acting like we’re in a recession, but we’re feeling like we’re about to be.”
— University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: 68.5 (still historically low)
3 Underrated Signals From This Week
1. Credit card delinquencies are rising.
Small, but steady increases—especially among 25–40-year-olds.
📊 Source: NY Fed Q2 report
2. Freight shipping volumes are declining.
Despite the consumer strength, logistics companies are signaling caution.
🚚 Watch: UPS and FedEx earnings next week.
3. Corporate guidance is more cautious than earnings suggest.
Q2 earnings have mostly beaten expectations, but outlooks are muted.
💼 This isn't bullish behavior—it’s defensive positioning.
A Word on the Market
The S&P 500 has hovered around record highs, fueled by tech and rate-cut expectations. But…
If real rate cuts don’t materialize by November, expect a pullback.
If consumer sentiment sours further, spending might actually follow.
Takeaway: The economy is fine—until the mood turns. And when it does, the landing might not feel so soft anymore.
Stay sharp,
Lauren
Editor, American Ledger