The Silent Slowdown: Why Q4 Growth Is Losing Steam Faster Than Forecasts

Economic growth in the US is positive, but the momentum behind it? It’s fading.

The data doesn’t signal an imminent recession. But taken together, recent data points suggest a cooling economy despite otherwise calm headlines. 

The question now, heading into year-end: Is this a pause before reacceleration, or the start of a broader slowdown?

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Real GDP growth estimate for 2025 and 2026: 2.0% each year, according to S&P Global

Real GDP growth in 2024: 2.8% as per S&P Global

CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor: rose 0.6% in October following a decrease in the prior month

Cass Freight Index – Shipments: down -4.3% month-over-month during October for a year-over-year decline of -7.8%

Unemployment insurance weekly claims: 1,974,000 as of November 8, 2025, rising 28,000 from one week prior

As we have not yet completed Q4, indicators from the first two months of the quarter give us an idea of what to expect. And this quarter is important. The final quarter of the year often tells us the direction of the next one.

So, what are the indicators telling us now?

GDP is slowing: S&P Global Ratings anticipates real GDP growth to cool to 2% for both 2025 and 2026. This is down from 2.8% in 2024.

GDP trackers often lag freight, retail, and labor-market signals. This means official GDP readings could soften in Q4.

While GDP growth has picked up again following a pullback in Q1 of this year, it’s unlikely this momentum will hold. It was, instead, likely a one-time shock.

Lower-income spending is flattening: According to the Bank of America Institute, spending growth for lower-income groups rose by only 0.7% last month. This compares to a 2.7% increase in spending by higher-income households.

Overall retail transaction volumes have decreased since the beginning of the year. But, spending is up by 2% since then, with BoA speculating the reason is that “consumers may be paying more for less.” This is surprising as typically, consumer spending picks up heading into the holiday season. Instead, we are seeing signs of fatigue.

Freight shipments decline: October’s shipping activity decreased by -4.3% month-over-month. Not only does this erase the gains from one month earlier, but it also puts year-over-year shipping volumes lower by -7.8%. And that fall in volume is getting bigger as the year progresses.

In September, volumes were down by -5.4% compared to one year earlier. Freight volumes tend to turn before headline economic data does. This downturn points to cooler demand from both consumers and industry players.

Unemployment insurance claims rising: As of the week ending November 8, 2025, there were 1,974,000 claims. This is up by 28,000 from one week prior. The US Department of Labor also says it represents the “highest level for insured unemployment since November 6, 2021 when it was 2,041,000.”

While the labor market isn’t crashing, it’s definitely slipping. And missing wages, especially around the holidays, puts additional pressure on spending.

On December 19, the Bureau of Economic Analysis was scheduled to release its initial estimate for Q3 2025 GDP. The prolonged US government shutdown has postponed the release.

When we do get this information, pay attention. It’s the next major test of whether this is a temporary cooldown or the beginning of something more persistent.

The economy isn’t stalling. But the loss of momentum is becoming harder to ignore. Freight is contracting, insured unemployment is rising, and consumer spending is flattening at the wrong time of year.

These aren’t recession signals. They’re momentum signals. And right now, the momentum is turning down heading into 2026.

— Lauren Brown
Editor, American Ledger

Sources:

S&P Global, November 2025 https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/economic-outlook-us-q1-2026-steady-as-she-goes-but-on-a-narrow-path-s101658550

National Retail Federation, November 2025 https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/cnbc-nrf-retail-monitor-s-october-data-shows-strong-momentum-going-into-holiday-season

Cass Information Systems, Inc. October 2025 https://www.cassinfo.com/freight-audit-payment/cass-transportation-indexes/october-2025

US Department of Labor, November 2025  https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

CNBC, April 2025 https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/gdp-q1-2025-.html

Bank of America Institute, November 2025 https://institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/economic-insights/consumer-checkpoint-november-2025.pdf

Bureau of Economic Analysis, November 2025 https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule

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