Last Call Before the Surge
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What Changed?
Retail spending has been resilient for years. But momentum is softer now.
A slowdown is beginning to emerge beneath the headline numbers. Credit card debt is climbing, with low-income consumers under the most strain. Delinquencies are rising, and personal savings rates are starting to slow.
What had kept the US economy moving during the past few years was pandemic savings, wage gains, and strong job growth. But those tailwinds are now fading.
The Numbers
Household borrowing: American total household debt rose by $197 billion in Q3 2025. It now stands at a high of $18.59 trillion. – Federal Reserve Bank of New York, September 2025
Past-due bills: Delinquencies on credit card loans hit 3.05% in April 2025. – Trading Economics, November 2025
Historical delinquency rate: Credit card payments overdue by over 30 days were 1.53% post-covid, sitting at a record low in July 2021. – Trading Economics, November 2025
Household savings: Personal savings slowed to 4.6% in August, down from its pandemic-era peak of 31.8%. The saving rate has declined for four straight months. – Trading Economics, November 2025. Bureau of Economic Analysis, August 2025
Why It Matters
With October layoffs being higher than expected, economists at The Bank of New York Mellon note “raising concerns that growth could slow” in response. This is a real problem because it’s this group that is the backbone of economic growth in the US. The Bank of New York Mellon (BNY) confirms this, reiterating the importance of consumer spending as “an important barometer of consumer health”. Another issue? Consumers don’t have their pandemic-era savings to fall back on anymore either. They had depleted these by the spring of 2024. Now, lower-income Americans have little cushion left for spending. That’s part of the reason why real consumer spending growth has become modest and volatile. Real personal consumption expenditures continue to grow, but at a sluggish pace compared to prior years. Especially the post-pandemic boom in 2021. Morgan Stanley anticipates that the trend will continue, ultimately weakening “through the rest of the year and into 2026 as households feel the effects of tariffs and economic uncertainty.”
GDP implications: As BNY points out, “consumption comprises 70% of gross domestic product (GDP), and a softening labor market could potentially subdue spending.”
Effect on consumers: The “affluent will carry consumer spending,” according to Morgan Stanley, as lower-income consumers tend to feel the impact of a cooling labor market first.
Corporate earnings risk: A slowdown in consumer spending will impact overall growth. And in turn, earnings forecasts. Companies with exposure to retail services and discretionary products could face headwinds. They are likely to underperform as a result. A broader consumer pullback could pressure revenue forecasts, margins, and ultimately valuations.
Expectations for holiday sales are lower this year due to the pressure of US tariffs. This could add fuel to the fire, causing additional earnings strain for corporations.
What to watch for: As we get more information about the US labor market following the government shutdown, take note. Any rise in unemployment can amplify consumer stress as it pressures the pocketbook even further.
Takeaway
With savings depleted, debt rising, and delinquencies climbing, households have far less room to absorb new shocks. As consumer spending cools, GDP is likely to also. And earnings expectations will have to adjust with it.
For investors, the story heading into 2026 is simple: their cushion is now gone.
— Lauren Brown
Editor, American Ledger
Sources:
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, August 2025 https://www.bostonfed.org/publications/current-policy-perspectives/2025/why-has-consumer-spending-remained-resilient.aspx
*Disclaimer: This is a paid advertisement for RAD Intel made pursuant to Regulation A+ offering and involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. The valuation is set by the Company and there is currently no public market for the Company's Common Stock. Nasdaq ticker “RADI” has been reserved by RAD Intel and any potential listing is subject to future regulatory approval and market conditions. Please read the offering circular and related risks at invest.radintel.ai.