What Changed?
U.S. exports hit a record in the latest trade report, but the details are less reassuring for manufacturers than the headline suggests. The biggest lift comes from industrial supplies—especially nonmonetary gold and other precious metals—categories that can surge without signaling stronger foreign demand for U.S.-made equipment, components, or finished goods.
At the same time, forward-looking export order measures remain in contraction. That combination—strong-looking exports with weak export orders—is a classic “composition trap” that can mask a softer reality on the factory floor.
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The Numbers
• October 2025 exports rose to $302.0B (+2.6% m/m) while imports fell to $331.4B (–3.2% m/m); the trade deficit narrowed to $29.4B.
Goods exports increased to $195.9B, led by industrial supplies and materials (+$10.2B), including nonmonetary gold (+$6.8B) and other precious metals (+$3.6B).
Consumer goods exports fell by $1.0B, including a $0.9B decline in pharmaceutical preparations.
ISM’s New Export Orders Index registered 46.8 in December 2025—its 10th consecutive month below 50.
In October 2025, EU seasonally adjusted exports fell 5.6% m/m and imports fell 4.3% m/m.
China’s imports rose just 0.2% y/y over January–November 2025.
The WTO’s October 2025 update projected world merchandise trade volume growth of 0.5% in 2026.
Why It Matters
For investors, the key point is that “exports” are not a single thing. A burst of gold and precious metals can boost the top line without improving the demand environment for core U.S. manufacturing categories like machinery, electrical equipment, and industrial technology.
The more useful signal is the order pipeline. When export orders stay below 50 for most of a year, manufacturers often shift from chasing growth to defending margins—through tighter inventory management, more cautious hiring, and more selective capex. That posture can show up in earnings as slower backlog conversion and a higher sensitivity to price concessions.
Europe and China matter here because they anchor global industrial cycles. If Europe’s import demand is rolling over and China’s import growth is barely positive, U.S. exporters face a tougher backdrop even if domestic conditions remain stable. The WTO’s expectation of slower global trade growth reinforces that this is not just a U.S. story—it’s a cooling impulse abroad.
Signals worth watching are simple: real goods exports, ISM export orders, and whether overseas import volumes re-accelerate. If those stay soft, “record exports” may continue to coexist with underwhelming factory momentum.
Takeaway
The risk isn’t that U.S. exports collapse—it’s that they look healthier than they are for the parts of the economy that drive manufacturing profits and industrial employment. When the headline is strong but the order book is weak, the quieter signal usually deserves more attention.
— Lauren Brown
Editor, American Ledger
Sources
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, January 2026 https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-october-2025
Institute for Supply Management, January 2026 https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/pmi/december/
Eurostat, December 2025
General Administration of Customs of China (via www.gov.cn), December 2025, https://english.www.gov.cn/archive/statistics/202512/08/content_WS69367395c6d00ca5f9a07f93.html
World Trade Organization, October 2025
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