What Changed?
After two years of supply-chain paranoia, many firms rebuilt buffers. The catch is that inventories are rising into a demand backdrop that looks softer — and the “insurance” starts to behave like a drag.
The tension isn’t about shelves being full; it’s about timing. When sales stop accelerating but inventory stays sticky, companies typically defend cash and margins the same way: slow production, discount more aggressively, or both.
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The Numbers
Total business inventories were $2.670T at the end of September 2025, up 0.2% from August and up 1.2% year over year.
The total business inventories-to-sales ratio was 1.37 in September 2025 (vs. 1.40 a year earlier).
ISM’s Manufacturing PMI registered 48.2 in November 2025, with New Orders at 47.4 and Backlog of Orders at 44.0 — demand gauges still in contraction.
ISM’s Inventories Index improved to 48.9 in November, while Prices were 58.5 — a mix that can squeeze margins if sell-through slows.
In BEA’s initial estimate for Q3 2025, “change in private inventories” subtracted 0.22 percentage point from real GDP growth.
Why It Matters
Inventory is where macro uncertainty hits earnings quality. If goods are sitting longer, the profit squeeze usually shows up first as higher promotions, unfavorable product mix, and rising logistics and warehousing expense — then later as weaker production schedules and cautious guidance.
The cost of being wrong is also higher when financing isn’t cheap. More cash tied up in working capital can quietly reduce flexibility — less room for buybacks, capex, or simply absorbing a demand wobble without cutting price.
For markets, the key isn’t a single inventory print — it’s the narrative shift. When management teams start emphasizing “channel inventory,” “promotional intensity,” or “working-capital headwinds,” that’s often the early language of margin defense.
Takeaway
Inventory looks like control until demand slows — then it becomes a negotiation with time. In this phase, the risk isn’t empty shelves; it’s the earnings math of clearing product without conceding pricing power.
— Lauren Brown
Editor, American Ledger
Sources
U.S. Census Bureau, December 2025 https://www.census.gov/mtis/current/index.html
Institute for Supply Management (via PR Newswire), December 2025 https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-48-2-november-2025-ism-manufacturing-pmi-report-302626979.html
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, December 2025 https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2025-12/gdp3q25-ini.pdf
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