What Changed?
This Week’s Briefing: The headline economy still looks steady, but the payment math underneath it is getting less forgiving — and the cleanest signal is showing up in 90+ day delinquencies.
The latest New York Fed Household Debt and Credit data (2025Q3, released November 2025) show balances still rising, while more borrowers roll from “behind” into “seriously behind.” That shift matters because 90+ days past due is where lenders tighten terms, securitizations reprice, and loss curves start to look less theoretical.
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The Numbers
Total household debt: $18.59T in 2025Q3 (+$197B quarter-over-quarter).
Credit card balances: $1.23T; auto loan balances: $1.66T (both 2025Q3).
Share of balances 90+ days delinquent (2025Q3): auto 5.02%; credit cards 12.41%; “other” consumer debt 9.55%.
New balances transitioning into serious delinquency (90+) in 2025Q3: auto 2.99%; credit cards 7.05%; “other” 5.35%.
Overall, 4.5% of outstanding household debt sat in some stage of delinquency in 2025Q3
Why It Matters
First, this is a cost-of-credit story, not just a consumer one. When 90+ day delinquencies rise, lenders don’t need a recession to react — they tighten underwriting, shrink credit lines, and reprice risk on the margin. The transmission is fast in cards and unsecured lending, and slower but still meaningful in autos via higher down payments and fewer approvals.
Second, the “other” bucket is the quiet pressure point. The New York Fed series doesn’t isolate personal loans by label, but “other” debt captures a broad unsecured mix that includes many personal-loan-like products. When that category’s serious delinquency flow runs north of 5%, it’s a reminder that the stress is no longer confined to one niche.
Third, watch the gap between balances and behavior. Household debt is still growing at a moderate pace, but the delinquency tail is thickening. That combination tends to compress lender risk appetite — and it can do so even while aggregate spending holds up.
Takeaway
Markets often treat consumer credit as a lagging recession signal. The more useful framing right now is simpler: rising 90+ day delinquencies are a real-time referendum on whether higher rates have become structurally harder to carry. When the tail moves first, pricing usually follows.
— Lauren Brown
Editor, American Ledger
Sources
Federal Reserve Bank of New York (Center for Microeconomic Data), November 2025 https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2025/20251105
Federal Reserve Bank of New York (Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax) — Data Underlying Report (2025Q3), November 2025
Federal Reserve Bank of New York (Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit: 2025Q3), November 2025 https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/householdcredit/data/pdf/hhdc_2025q3.pdf