What Changed?
This Week’s Briefing — The labor market still looks “steady” in the headline narrative, but corporate behavior is getting more defensive beneath it. Before companies announce layoffs, they usually run a quieter playbook: fewer posted jobs, slower hiring, and more hour-trimming across existing staff.
As of January 1, 2026, the freshest official data available still runs through November for payrolls and hours, and October for job openings. Those prints show an economy that isn’t falling over — but is losing labor momentum in a way that often shows up first in schedules, not pink slips.
At the same time, labor costs aren’t giving firms much relief. When demand growth cools but wages and benefits stay firm, management teams tend to protect margins with the most controllable expense — headcount.
Satellite giant EchoStar just sold off a block of radio frequencies to Elon Musk’s SpaceX for a jaw-dropping $17 billion.
To most investors, it looked like another headline in the crowded 5G race.
But to legendary tech investor Jeff Brown it was something else entirely:
A signal.
One that confirms a thesis he’s been writing about for years…
That SpaceX isn’t just a rocket company.
It’s quietly positioning itself to become America’s next great mobile network operator.
If he’s right… this could be the final “tell” before Musk unleashes what may become the second $10 trillion company in history.
And the opportunity is massive for those who know how to position themselves now.
That’s the real story the mainstream press isn’t telling you.
In light of this recent news, Jeff has issued an urgent briefing.
The Numbers
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls is 34.3 hours in November 2025.
The index of aggregate weekly hours (2007=100) rises to 117.2 in November 2025, up 0.3% from October.
Job openings are 7.7 million in October 2025 (4.6% rate). Hires are 5.1 million (3.2%). Quits are 2.9 million (1.8%) and are down 276,000 from a year earlier. Layoffs and discharges are 1.9 million (1.2%).
Compensation costs for private industry workers are up 3.5% over the 12 months ending September 2025.
Profits from current production increase $166.1 billion in Q3 2025, after a $6.8 billion gain in Q2.
The S&P 500’s blended net profit margin is 13.1% for Q3 2025; FactSet estimates 12.8% for Q4 2025.
Why It Matters
Hours and openings are the early-warning system because they adjust faster than payrolls. A flatter workweek means firms can keep “employment” stable while still dialing down labor input — which often translates into slower wage income growth and softer demand for consumer-facing businesses over time.
The second-order effect is on corporate earnings quality. When profit results are supported by cost restraint rather than durable revenue growth, leadership in equities can narrow and volatility tends to rise around guidance. That matters for portfolios: labor-intensive sectors with limited pricing power are the first to feel the squeeze, while companies with automation leverage and strong margins tend to hold up better.
The market doesn’t need a recession to see layoffs accelerate. It just needs enough pressure — weaker labor demand signals alongside sticky compensation costs — to make “right-sizing” the default response.
Takeaway
The layoff watch is less about drama and more about sequencing. When hours stop rising and openings stop replenishing, the labor market can cool quickly — even if the top-line data still looks calm.
— Lauren Brown
Editor, American Ledger
Sources
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 2025 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 2025 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.htm (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 2025 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/eci.htm (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, December 2025 https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-3rd-quarter-2025-initial-estimate-and-corporate-profits (Bureau of Economic Analysis)