What Changed?
The story shifts. Inflation is no longer the only macro constraint, and that changes the debate from “how hot is too hot” to “how much slowing is too much.”
In November, payroll growth is modest and the unemployment rate sits at 4.6%. At the same time, households tell the New York Fed they feel the job market getting harder — and their near-term debt-payment risk is rising. That’s the tension: the data don’t yet describe a recession, but the margin of safety looks thinner than it did a year ago.
The Fed’s December rate cut reinforces that pivot. Policy is no longer leaning against overheating; it is positioning against a labor-market slide while inflation continues to cool.
Last Call Before the Surge
Over $60M raised. 14,000 investors. Valuation up 4,900% in 4 years. Shares remain $0.85.
Nasdaq ticker $RADI reserved. Investors include Adobe, Fidleity Ventures and employees from Google, Meta, Amazon. Leadership has executed $9B+ in M&A transactions.
A stacked roster of Fortune 1000 clients and agency partners with recurring seven-figure relationships already in place.
Spotlighted in Fast Company, RAD Intel was described in a sponsored feature as “a groundbreaking step for the Creator Economy.” Sales contracts for 2025 are already 2.5X higher than 2024.
Industry consolidation is accelerating. 240 AI deals totaling $55B in 6 months. AdTech forecasted at $795B next year. Companies adopting AI expect 60% higher revenue growth over the next 36 months.
This is the intelligence layer powering tomorrow’s marketing giants. It is also the last opportunity to enter at this price. Secure your allocation, expand your exposure, and participate in RAD Intel’s upside while the window is still open.
The Numbers
Labor market: Nonfarm payrolls +64,000 in November; unemployment rate 4.6%; average hourly earnings +3.5% year over year.
Inflation: CPI +2.7% year over year in November; core CPI +2.6%.
Growth: Real GDP +4.3% annual rate in Q3 2025; real final sales to private domestic purchasers +3.0%.
Policy: Fed funds target range lowered to 3.50%–3.75% (December decision).
Household stress: Job-finding probability 43.1% (series low); probability of missing a minimum debt payment 15.3% (highest since April 2020).
Why It Matters
A “reset” scenario is basically a glide path: inflation cools, rates drift lower, and growth slows without a sharp rise in unemployment. The ingredients are present — wage growth is moderating, core inflation is near the Fed’s comfort zone, and activity still looks solid in the most recent GDP data.
A recession scenario doesn’t require collapse — just a feedback loop. If hiring stays thin and unemployment edges higher, household confidence can weaken quickly, especially for lower-income cohorts. The New York Fed’s survey is a useful tell here: deteriorating job-finding expectations combined with rising perceived payment risk is exactly the kind of “quiet stress” that can turn a mild slowdown into broader demand compression.
Three signals matter more than single-point headlines over the next 12 months: labor-market breadth (whether weakness spreads beyond a few sectors), credit transmission (whether “harder to get credit” becomes tighter spending), and inflation persistence (whether core services keeps drifting down). If two of those three worsen together, “reset” becomes harder to sustain.
Takeaway
The most honest framing isn’t recession versus soft landing — it’s whether the economy can absorb slower hiring without households pulling back in unison. The next 12 months look less like a cliff and more like a test of resilience at the margins.
— Lauren Brown
Editor, American Ledger
Sources
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 2025 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 2025, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, December 2025 https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-3rd-quarter-2025-initial-estimate-and-corporate-profits
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, December 2025 https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20251210a.htm
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, January 2026 https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2026/20260108
*Disclaimer: This is a paid advertisement for RAD Intel made pursuant to Regulation A+ offering and involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. The valuation is set by the Company and there is currently no public market for the Company's Common Stock. Nasdaq ticker “RADI” has been reserved by RAD Intel and any potential listing is subject to future regulatory approval and market conditions. Brand references reflect factual platform use, not endorsement. Investor references reflect factual individual or institutional participation and do not imply endorsement or sponsorship by the referenced companies. Please read the offering circular and related risks at invest.radintel.ai.